Election 2023: Democrats' Big Night Largely Solidifies Status Quo

It was another good election night for Democrats. A handful of states held off-year elections yesterday with the status quo largely holding and Ohio voters approving two major ballot measures legalizing abortion and recreational marijuana. The headlines for Democrats include Gov. Beshear (D) holding on to his seat in Kentucky and Democrats keeping control of the Virginia Senate while flipping control of the Virginia House from Republicans. Finally, the biggest win for Republicans actually took place last month when Jeff Landry (R) surpassed the 50% vote threshold on Oct. 14, avoiding a November runoff election and replacing term-limited Gov. Bel Edwards (D) in Louisiana. By flipping the governor’s mansion in Louisiana, the GOP gained a trifecta, while Democrats capturing the Virginia Senate cements divided government in the commonwealth, further frustrating Gov. Youngkin’s (R) agenda for the remainder of his term. 

The most consequential policy shift of the night might have been the two ballot measures in Ohio. After failing to do so in 2015, Ohioans approved marijuana legalization for recreational use in the state by passing Issue 2. The Buckeye State will become the 24th state to enact recreational marijuana legalization. Voters also approved Ohio’s Issue 1, which adds legal protections for reproductive decisions, including abortions, into the state constitution. Abortion in the post-Dobbs era was a major presence in all the elections this year. 

There were only three governor’s races in 2023. Louisiana AG Landry (R) was able to flip the open seat left by Gov. Bel Edwards (D), providing the biggest change on our maps and delivering another trifecta for the GOP. Entering 2024, Republicans will have 23 trifectas — where one party controls both chambers of the legislature as well as the governor’s mansion — while Democrats will remain with 17 trifectas, leaving only 10 states with divided government. This represents another record for the modern era with 40 total trifectas in 2024. I’m a broken record, but the states are more divided, politically than ever. 

It was otherwise a good night for the two incumbent governors. In Kentucky, Gov. Beshear (D) cruised to victory despite some late polling showing his challenger closing the gap. And Gov. Tate Reeves (R) won reelection comfortably in Mississippi despite some outlier polls showing a closer race. Both incumbents appear to have earned reelection with about 52% of the vote returns right now, which is pretty similar to Jeff Landry’s margin of victory in Louisiana. 

Finally, the legislatures in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia were all up for election this year. Political control of the first three states’ legislatures was never in doubt, while Virginia was the legislature to watch. Forecasters gave Democrats a slight edge to keep their control of the Virginia Senate and flipping control to capture the House. And that’s just what they did on Tuesday. Democrats retained their control in the Senate by winning at least 21 of the 40 seats, with 1 additional race too close to call. In the House, Democrats flipped control of the chamber by capturing at least 51 of 100 seats, with 3 additional races too close to call. Virginia will remain a divided government with Democratic control of the legislature for the remainder of Gov. Youngkin’s (R) single term in office (Virginia has a single, 4-year term limit for governors). Republicans in Louisiana and Mississippi and Democrats in New Jersey all appear to have added to their majorities in those state legislatures.

The national press will focus on what this week’s election results mean for 2024. But taking a step back, while the Democrats got most of what they had hoped for on Tuesday, the status quo largely stands. And while retaining the governorship in dark red Kentucky and capturing the House in Virginia are major wins, they largely keep the status quo of divided government in those two commonwealths. Even Landry’s big win for the open seat governor race, delivering a new trifecta for the GOP, is slightly diminished because Republicans already held a veto-proof majority in the Louisiana legislature. Everyone will now shift their focus completely on next year’s big presidential election cycle. But with at least 11 governor’s races and 85 state legislative chambers up for election, 2024 will be a big year for state elections too.