Key Takeaways:
- While 2024 has only 11 states with gubernatorial elections this November, at least 8 of those races will be open seats without an incumbent running for reelection.
- The final wildcard spot is Vermont Governor Scott (R), who has yet to announce whether he’ll run for a fifth term as governor. If Gov. Scott decides not to run, then there will be a ninth open seat available in 2024.
- Open seats are important in an era when incumbents have an excellent track record of being reelected.
While 2024 has only 11 states with gubernatorial elections this November, at least 8 of those races will be open seats without an incumbent running for reelection. This contrasts with the 36 governor’s races we saw during the 2022 midterm elections where there were only 8 open seats of the 36 races — the same number of open gubernatorial seats we’ll see in 2024. So while there were more than three times the number of gubernatorial elections in 2022, we’ll see about the same number of new faces after this year’s elections.
Looking more closely at this year’s contests, only first-term governors in Montana and Utah have declared for reelection. The final wildcard spot is Vermont Governor Scott (R), who has yet to announce whether he’ll run for a fifth term as governor. If Gov. Scott decides not to run, then there will be a ninth open seat available in 2024.
Open seats are even more important in an era when incumbents have an excellent track record of being reelected. Of the 36 gubernatorial elections in 2022, only one incumbent — Nevada’s Steve Sisolak (D) — failed to win reelection. This year, the two incumbents running should have no problem keeping their jobs. Both Montana Gov. Gianforte (R) and Utah Gov. Cox (R) are in safe seats. And if Vermont Gov. Scott (R) decides to run again, he should win reelection easily, boasting the highest approval rating in the country.
Sign Up for Morning MultiState
This article appeared in our Morning MultiState newsletter on March 12, 2024. For more timely insights like this, be sure to sign up for our Morning MultiState weekly morning tipsheet. We created Morning MultiState with state government affairs professionals in mind — sign up to receive the latest from our experts in your inbox every Tuesday morning. Click here to sign up.