2025 Governors and Legislatures (Projected)
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Key Takeaways:

  • 2024 is a big election year in the states. Voters will decide the outcome of many state governor, legislator, and supreme court justice races this year. In addition, states have certified 80 statewide ballot measurers thus far. 
  • Although 86 state legislative chambers in 44 states will be up for election in November, only a handful of states have much of a chance to see a political majority change hands.
  • Most of these states are in play because the current party in control of a legislative chamber holds a slim majority of a few seats.


Voters in the states will elect 164 statewide office holders this year — including 11 governors — 7,386 state legislators, and 82 state supreme court justices. States have also certified 80 statewide ballot measures so far, which voters will decide whether to approve on November 5. I’ve already previewed the ever-important gubernatorial races and the high number of open seats. Today we’ll dive into the state legislative elections. 

Although 86 state legislative chambers in 44 states will be up for election in November, only a handful of states have much of a chance to see a political majority change hands. Examining the map below, only a few states stand out as worth keeping a close eye on this fall.

Most of these states are in play because the current party in control of a legislative chamber holds a slim majority of a few seats. In 2022, Democrats flipped the Minnesota Senate, Pennsylvania House, and both chambers in the Michigan legislature. This year, Republicans will target all of these chambers because Democrats’ control relies on only a few seats in each chamber. Last cycle, Democrats targeted the Arizona legislature but came up one seat short in each chamber while gaining the governor’s mansion. This year, Democrats will try again in Arizona, hoping to transform the state into a Democratic trifecta. Anyone familiar with the New Hampshire House and its 400 members knows it’s always up for grabs in an election year. Even more so this year as Republicans have held on to a majority of only a few seats over the past two years. 

Finally, the Wisconsin Assembly is perhaps the most interesting legislative chamber in play this cycle. Republicans have controlled the legislature in Wisconsin since 2010 and currently hold a 64-35 seat majority in the Assembly. But after liberals gained a majority on the state supreme court, the court overturned the gerrymandered map that gave Republicans a significant edge in state legislative elections. Lawmakers adopted a new map earlier this year, which should give Democrats a shot at significantly diminishing the GOP’s majorities in the chamber if not flipping control entirely. The new maps will put the senate in play as well, but not this cycle, because only half of the senate seats are up for election this year. 

Outside these states, gaining or breaking up legislative supermajorities will be a key electoral target for political parties in 2024. 


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This article appeared in our Morning MultiState newsletter on April 9, 2024. For more timely insights like this, be sure to sign up for our Morning MultiState weekly morning tipsheet. We created Morning MultiState with state government affairs professionals in mind — sign up to receive the latest from our experts in your inbox every Tuesday morning. Click here to sign up.