Unlike 2022, Republicans Are On the Defensive in This Year's State Elections

Last week, Louis Jacobson of Sabato’s Crystal Ball released his first handicapping of state legislature control for the 2024 election cycle.

Jacobson found a dozen state legislative chambers that he has rated as competitive this year (with either “Leans” or “Toss Up” ratings), which is in the medium range of competitive chambers compared to previous cycles. One shift from the 2022 election is that in 2024, Republicans are defending more of these competitive chambers, whereas in 2022 it was Democrats that found themselves on the defensive in most of the competitive chambers. 

All twelve of Jacobson’s competitive chambers line up within the states we’ve identified as states to watch this election season. Republicans hope to exploit the thin Democratic majorities in Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania this year. The lower chamber in all three of these states are the ones to watch, but even though the Minnesota Senate isn’t up for election this cycle, a special election could make the difference between a Democratic or Republican majority in the chamber. On the flip side, Arizona Republicans hang on to a one-seat majority in both chambers of the Arizona Legislature, and both are rated as “Toss Ups” this year. Gaining a majority in both chambers would provide Democrats with a trifecta in 2025 in a state that was recently under complete Republican control. 

The Wisconsin Assembly is in play for the first time in over a decade thanks to a new set of district maps spurred by a state supreme court challenge, although Jacobson still rates the chamber as “Tilt Republican.” The 400-member New Hampshire  House is rated a “Toss Up” after two years of slim Republican majorities. And, finally, both chambers of the Alaska Legislature have been controlled by bi-partisan coalitions made up of Independents, moderate Republicans, and Democrats. Depending on primaries, retirements, and general election results, those coalitions need to be rebuilt after each election cycle, which is a daunting task. 

While legislative majorities are key, don’t underestimate the power of a supermajority. Currently, Republicans have veto-proof supermajorities in both legislative chambers in 21 states compared to only 9 states where Democrats hold supermajorities in both chambers. In his analysis, Jacobson identifies Kansas, Montana, North Carolina, and Ohio as states where Republicans are at risk of losing their current supermajorities. Democrats will look to chip away at the wide majorities that Republicans have enjoyed in those states. North Carolina will be particularly worth watching, as Republicans hold on to a slim supermajority paired with a “Toss Up” open gubernatorial election in November.

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This article appeared in our Morning MultiState newsletter on June 25, 2024. For more timely insights like this, be sure to sign up for our Morning MultiState weekly morning tipsheet. We created Morning MultiState with state government affairs professionals in mind — sign up to receive the latest from our experts in your inbox every Tuesday morning. Click here to sign up.