2024 State Elections Toolkit
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Key Takeaways:

  • We wondered what the state electoral maps would look like if either political party had a “wave election.” This hypothetical assumes that one political party prevails in all of the forecasted “toss-up,” “lean,” and “tilt” elections for governor or control over a state legislative chamber.
  • Currently, Republicans hold 23 state trifectas and Democrats control 17 state trifectas with divided government in 10 states.
  • For a Democratic wave election, Democrats would need to take the governor's mansions in North Carolina and New Hampshire (both toss-ups); defend slim legislative majorities in Michigan, Minnesota, and the Pennsylvania; and flip chambers in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. This would net Democrats one additional gubernatorial seat along with two full legislative chambers and one chamber in Wisconsin. This would translate to two new trifectas for Democrats in 2025 (Arizona and New Hampshire).
  • Looking at a potential Republican wave, Republicans would need to capture those two toss-up governor races in New Hampshire and North Carolina; hold legislative control in New Hampshire, Arizona, and Wisconsin; take back chamber majorities in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota; and break up the bipartisan coalitions currently controlling both chambers of the Alaska legislature. This would give the GOP new trifectas in Alaska and North Carolina, and break up Democratic trifectas in Minnesota and Michigan.


During the run-up to the 2022 elections, we asked what the state electoral maps would look like if either political party had a “wave election.” This hypothetical assumed that one political party prevailed in all of the forecasted “toss-up,” “lean,” and “tilt” elections for governor or control over a state legislative chamber. Despite the typical down year for the president’s party in midterm elections, the end result of the 2022 election turned out closer to the  assumptions for a “blue wave.” Let’s repeat this exercise for the early forecasts of the 2024 state elections.

This is a fun exercise, and useful in the sense that it showcases possible extreme outcomes. However, we all know that electoral waves are extremely difficult to predict. But it’s good to begin conceptualizing the potential outcomes for what the political map might look like in the states in 2025. For all of MultiStates 2024 state elections coverage, bookmark our 2024 State Elections Toolkit.

Current State Government Trifectas

Currently, Republicans hold 23 state trifectas and Democrats control 17 state trifectas with divided government in 10 states. 


Hypothetical Democratic Wave in 2024

We’ll start with a hypothetical wave election for Democrats. The only two clearly competitive gubernatorial races are North Carolina and New Hampshire (both toss-ups), so let’s assume Democrats capture both, retaining their political control in North Carolina and flipping the open gubernatorial seat in New Hampshire. The legislative side is a bit more complicated. We’d need to assume that Democrats successfully defended their slim majorities in Michigan, Minnesota, and the Pennsylvania House and went on offense to flip both chambers of the Arizona and New Hampshire Legislatures along with the Wisconsin Assembly. This would net Democrats one additional gubernatorial seat along with two full legislative chambers and one chamber in Wisconsin. This result would translate to two new trifectas for Democrats in 2025 (Arizona and New Hampshire).


Hypothetical Republican Wave in 2024

Now let’s assume a Republican wave in the 2024 elections. If the GOP captures all the legislative chambers and gubernatorial seats currently rated as toss-ups, leans, or tilts, then they would capture those two toss-up governor races in New Hampshire and North Carolina. It would also mean that Republicans hold on to their control of the New Hampshire and Arizona legislatures along with the Wisconsin Assembly, and take back majorities in the Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota Houses. Let’s also assume that Republicans can elect enough conservatives to the Alaska legislature to break up the bipartisan coalitions currently controlling both chambers and allow a full Republican majority to take control. This would give the GOP new trifectas in Alaska and North Carolina, and break up Democratic trifectas in Minnesota and Michigan.


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This article appeared in our Morning MultiState newsletter on July 30, 2024. For more timely insights like this, be sure to sign up for our Morning MultiState weekly morning tipsheet. We created Morning MultiState with state government affairs professionals in mind — sign up to receive the latest from our experts in your inbox every Tuesday morning. Click here to sign up.