Trifectas and the 2024 State Elections

Current State Government Trifectas

A state government trifecta occurs when a political party controls both chambers of the legislature as well as the governor’s mansion. Here's the pre-election trifecta status for each party:

• Democrats have 17 state trifectas,
• Republicans have 23 state trifectas, and
• 10 states have divided government. 

Potential Partisan "Waves"

What would state electoral maps look like if either political party had a “wave election”? This hypothetical assumes that one political party prevails in all of the forecasted “toss-up,” “lean,” and “tilt” elections for governor or control over a state legislative chamber. 

What Would a Democratic Wave Election Look Like?

We’ll start with a hypothetical wave election for Democrats. The only two clearly competitive gubernatorial races are North Carolina and New Hampshire (both toss-ups), so let’s assume Democrats capture both, retaining their political control in North Carolina and flipping the open gubernatorial seat in New Hampshire. The legislative side is a bit more complicated. We’d need to assume that Democrats successfully defended their slim majorities in Michigan, Minnesota, and the Pennsylvania House and went on offense to flip both chambers of the Arizona and New Hampshire Legislatures along with the Wisconsin Assembly. This would net Democrats one additional gubernatorial seat along with two full legislative chambers and one chamber in Wisconsin. This result would translate to two new trifectas for Democrats in 2025 (Arizona and New Hampshire).

What Would a Republican Wave Election Look Like?

Now let’s assume a Republican wave in the 2024 elections. If the GOP captures all the legislative chambers and gubernatorial seats currently rated as toss-ups, leans, or tilts, then they would capture those two toss-up governor races in New Hampshire and North Carolina. It would also mean that Republicans hold on to their control of the New Hampshire and Arizona legislatures along with the Wisconsin Assembly, and take back majorities in the Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota Houses. Let’s also assume that Republicans can elect enough conservatives to the Alaska legislature to break up the bipartisan coalitions currently controlling both chambers and allow a full Republican majority to take control. This would give the GOP new trifectas in Alaska and North Carolina, and break up Democratic trifectas in Minnesota and Michigan.

This is a fun exercise, and useful in the sense that it showcases possible extreme outcomes. However, we all know — especially after the past month — that electoral waves are extremely difficult to predict with months left before election day. But it’s good to begin conceptualizing the potential outcomes for what the political map might look like in the states in 2025. 

More MultiState 2024 State Election Resources

• 2024 State Elections Toolkit landing page